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31st October 2004, 10:44 PM
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Suspended
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 5,359
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Well there's a longshot come home.Somebody actually understands me!
Know,Bookie,that the shorter price you concieve your selection to be,that the more certain that you will get plenty of collects.
With the associated shorter run of outs.
As the price goes higher the chances of a return rise.Granted the return will be much more substantial,but the run of outs between collects grows.
And believe me,the run of outs really shatters your nerves big time.Might even wipe out your bank.
Tell you what I do.
The shorter my calculated price,the less overlay I chase.I mean getting 100 to 1 about a calculated 50 to 1 shot is a huge overlay,but can you see it as madness?
Test your math skills here.
I use this formula:
"My odds",multiplied by "my odds",multiplied by 0.15,plus "my odds"
Gee that looks ugly written like that so here's 2 examples.One at $1.60,and the other at $6.50
1.6 times 1.6 times 0.15 equals 0.384
Add 1.6 becomes $1.98 is the price I chase for my $1.60 selection.About 24% overlay
6.5 * 6.5 * 0.15 + 6.5 = $12.85
On this roughie,I am chasing a 100% overlay.
And my key to not going broke between collects is to put less on the rougher selections and more on the favoured ones.
Hopefully your staking plan provides for this.
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