thetout,

No, you do not back your top rater!!!

You have marked it a 28% chance of winning the race.

Now, let's say this race is run 100 times and each time you place $1 on your top rater to win at $2.90. According to your prices it will win 28% of the time and lose the other 72%.

Therefore, on 28 occasions you will collect $2.90 and on 72 occasions you will collect zero.

Now, your total collect will be 28*$2.90=$81.20

Less the $100 outlay.

Leaves you a $19.80 loser.

Catfish?