OK, I'll have a crack at tonight's EPL game between Man City and Norwich.

Mind you I have no idea about soccer!!!

Using the last 4 years stats and a suitable form of statistical distribution (i'm sure most of you know which one) I come up with the following :

Pr <2.5 goals 0.68 or $1.47

Therefore, the suggestion is to back <2.5 goals at the $1.85 for whatever your staking plan suggests!

Let's see how we go???

You can all flame me tomorrow when it's a 5-4 goalfest and then we can try again!