Paddy, I’m still chuckling!

Don’t have a system as such.

I have maintained for a number of years, a computer database for Perth metropolitan race results (dead or better track), of horse performances (ratings), for those horses that finish within 5 lengths of the race winner.

I use standard parameters such as the class of race (forms the rating base), weight carried in relation to limit, jockey rating, beaten margin (winner = 0), and some “bad luck in running” adjustment where applicable. The latter is normally gauged from stewards reports and watching race replays. I also note race distance, track location & date of race, as well as style of run eg. fought on (FO), faded slightly (FS), ran on moderately (ROM) etc Maintain most recent (max ten) runs for each horse, plus best run (rating) – could be one of ten most previous but may not be, as well as best distance range (eg 1000 –1200) for each horse.


When it comes to rating for likely results, I take into account each horse’s previous performances (ratings), jockey rating, weight to be carried (compared to race limit), distance of race and sometimes barrier position – both factors dependant of horses general racing style.

I also consider a horse’s current “form pattern” and sometimes their previous form pattern/s. On some occasion also consider likely tempo of race. Race 5 at Belmont last Saturday for example – a number of good class horses who all like to lead, hence would suit those horses who would normally race back in the field.

I rate every horse (assuming in my database) in each race. Based on my final rating also ascertain likely finishing position (in lengths) from the winner.

Can also calculate expected odds to win, based on predicted finishing position.


_________________
All the best from the West

Sandgroper :smile:

[ This Message was edited by: Sandgroper on 2002-07-22 17:40 ]