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Old 8th November 2004, 03:42 PM
topsy99 topsy99 is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: geeveston
Posts: 702
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thanks. if i could impart any thoughts to anyone it is that we should reduce the number of races we are targeting.
go where there are known winners e.g. listed horses, recent winnersm good times, trackwork etc.

on a broad scale i target listed horses because 20 races a week on average are won by listed horses. there are 30 meetings a week with 8 races which is 240 races. only about 45 races have listed horses in them so i have eliminated 195 races already.
all i have to do is to be on the right horses. in country races most listed horses are over-bet that is shorter than they should be and dont present value.
of the 20 races a week that listed horses win
those horses have been placed in a listed or group race in 80% of cases.
so the field is narrowing isnt it.
if it is a long-winder like another neptune then i need over 10/1 to back it.
simple isnt it.
many horses like get going and centre fire both of whom won recently keep going around at bernborough odds in country meetings.
if we keep backing them we are going to lose our shirt.
at long odds i can accept losers.
if i have a contribution to make then these fundamentals are it.
dont bet too many races,
bet recent performers else look for good odds.

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