Moeee,

I find if you have the top teams rated too far above the bottom teams, you won't come up with many upsets. You'll almost always end up with the favourites rated well on top. That's why I tend to rate them fairly conservatively. Usually I start the year with about 6 or 7 goals between top and bottom teams and by season's end that's normally about 9 or 10. I give bonuses of up to 3 goals for home ground advantage and up to 2 goals for head to head performance.

If the Homedog system carries on as it has done this year, it would be FANTASTIC, but chances are it could start to level out a bit. At the moment, I'm betting both the System selections and my selections equally but I might have to look at betting a bit more on the System selections in future.

Anyway Mo, here's how the system went on AFL this year:

34 bets, 24 wins
R1 Kangaroos (+6.5) vs Adelaide WON
R1 W.Bulldogs (+9.5) vs West Coast WON
R2 Adelaide (+11.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R3 Essendon (+7.5) vs West Coast WON
R4 Melbourne (+19.5) vs Port Adelaide WON
R4 West Coast (+5.5) vs Brisbane WON
R4 Adelaide (+5.5) vs St Kilda LOST
R5 Richmond (+10.5) vs Adelaide LOST
R5 Carlton (+12.5) vs West Coast WON
R6 St Kilda (+4.5) vs Brisbane WON
R6 Geelong (+4.5) vs Adelaide WON
R7 Kangaroos (+28.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R8 Hawthorn* (+8.5) vs Fremantle WON
R8 Geelong (+5.5) vs Melbourne WON
R8 Kangaroos (+15.5) vs Port Adelaide WON
R10 Carlton (+46.5) vs St Kilda LOST
R11 Sydney (+30.5) vs St Kilda WON
R12 Essendon (+8.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R13 Geelong (+19.5) vs Brisbane WON
R14 Carlton (+17.5) vs Sydney WON
R14 Adelaide (+7.5) vs Melbourne WON
R15 Hawthorn* (+7.5) vs West Coast WON
R16 Collingwood (+22.5) vs Brisbane LOST
R16 Hawthorn (+34.5) vs Port Adel LOST
R18 Adelaide (+8.5) vs Kangaroos WON
R18 Essendon (+11.5) vs Port Adel WON
R18 Sydney (+21.5) vs Brisbane WON
R19 Richmond (+33.5) vs Geelong WON
R20 Hawthorn (+41.5) vs Brisbane WON
R21 Collingwood (+15.5) vs Port Adel LOST
R21 Adelaide (+16.5) vs Geelong WON
R22 Richmond (+22.5) vs Sydney LOST
SF St Kilda (+7.5) vs Sydney WON
PF Geelong* (+30.5) vs Brisbane WON

By the way, the Homedog system has had 23 wins from 38 bets on the Rugby League, and as for Rugby Union, well how about 17 wins from 18 bets!!! If I thought for a minute that sort of strike rate would continue, I'd stop betting on anything else!!!


[ This Message was edited by: sportznut on 2004-11-14 09:40 ]