Thread: Time Analysis.
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Old 30th July 2002, 11:20 AM
TESTAROSSA TESTAROSSA is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Wyong , NSW
Posts: 1,139
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Manikato ,

I am not completely sure at what you are suggesting but (correct me if i'm wrong)i think you are suggesting giving each horse a time rating of its own.

All i am trying to achieve is to give every race (not every horse) a time rating , and break each race into two parts , the first part of the race and the second part of the race and determine which races were slowly run up front , evenly run up front , or quickly run up front.

E.g A 1200m race run in the time of 1:12:02 (7202) and the last 600m was 34:82 (3482) The time rating for the first part of the race would be 51.6% and the last part being 48.4% meaning the race was very slowly run up front as 51.6% of the race was run in the first part of it , backmarkers would have little or no chance of winning.

So using this we can say a horse that finished 3 lengths from the winner and was last on the turn ran a much better race then a horse which lead into the straight but was beaten 2 lengths.

What i like to look for is a race run fast up front like 49.5% or faster and look at what the first few horses in the running finished , if one of them stuck on at the finish thay are a VERY good bet next run.

The only query with this time analysis at first is working out what percentage of time is quick or slow for each individual distance and each track but having been using this approach for quite some time i am pretty confident i have it all worked out.
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