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On 2004-11-22 22:20, lomaca wrote:
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On 2004-11-22 21:32, TenFour wrote:
adding that the horses last start must have been no more than 2 weeks ago, but I'm not sure as to what effect that would have.
Tenfour, sorry to say this. "time between starts" is a myth! It is only there to be selected because it is easily accessed in the formguide. Remember this, some people say stay away from first uppers. Well I back some of them up to 1100M, because fresh horses can and do win on short distances first up. Also I could point out some horses that won over 1600M first up. It is all available in the horses form. Of course race fitness is important but not as important as some other factors. Some horses actually will have enough of racing after a few starts, while others need 6 or more runs to come to hand. Do not become a slave of any software that allows you to make mechanical adjustments and hope you will discover the holy grail. I am not being negative here, just that I have been through it all myself. You have access to the form if you are using PPR so after the race, check why the fav did not win and why the winner did? Sometimes there is no obvious reason (or is but we can't do b.. all about it, but that's racing) But most of the times you will find that there is a valid reason, like never placed in the same class, never placed on the distance and a lot of other reasons. I have seen some favs on TAB, and I thought to myself Why on earth? and I was proved right. The best advice I can give is, try to read the form and then use it in the input in your software if possible.
PS Class on it's own means little! Couple it with the prize money! Do you think Class3 $3000 at Esk is the same as Class3 $8000 at Eagle Farm???
Cheers and good luck!
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