Becareful,

If Sheehan was riding him, he be 15 lengths back. If Beadman was riding him he might be a lot closer.

If a leader is able to run slower over the 1st part of the race, the horse has more energy to run a faster last 600m (look at some sectional times) If they walk the first part, a leader could run 34 secs or less for the final 600m. Even if a horse like UP was only 6 lengths back, it would still be very difficult for him to win.

If you look at Sportscolour re 200m sectionals, horses often run about 12 secs for last 200m and about 23 secs from 600-200m. Given a slower early pace, leaders can
run 22 secs from 600m to 200m and less than 12 secs over the final 200m. If this happens, it is near on impossible for backmarkers to win. A leader does need to be able to sprint though.

If the pace was fast, more horses tire, and the stronger, stayer types have the advantage.

Ian Thorpe is the perfect example of a on pacer who can sprint. The only way Grant Hackett could beat him over 400m is if Thorpe went thru the first 250m like a 50m sprint. Even then Thorpe would probably still win due to class.

[ This Message was edited by: manikato on 2002-08-01 16:16 ]