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Old 6th August 2002, 01:46 PM
becareful becareful is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Canberra
Posts: 730
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The problem that I see with Odds-on horses is that you are never going to get a big over - if you are lucky you might get 10c or 20c more than the fair price - with $8-$20 horses you can often get overs of $3-$10 (in my opinion!). When you are operating on such a slim margin you have very little scope for error - you would certainly never want to back these on the TAB because the price can move by this much between the jump and when the divs are declared.

If you are backing a 10% chance at $15 and it doesn't win it doesn't really matter - you only expect them to win 1 in 10 times and you still have another 14 chances to square up. If you are backing a $1.50 favourite and it doesn't win you have to win the next 2 just to get back to square before you even think about making a profit.

So if there is an odds-on favourite that you are confident will win - don't back anything in the race. If you think it may lose then look for the possible winners that you can get a good price for.
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