
11th December 2004, 09:57 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Perth
Posts: 18
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Before you all get carried away with this method let me point out that it's a "Golden Pin" system.
Below is a quote from some research that you might find interesting.
QUOTE
Once upon a time I sent away several of my hard earned $$$$
to a fine fellow who, in return, sent me a magnificently
bound set of tables, rules, suggestions which were guaranteed
to put me on the winning way in my quest for El Dorado.
When you carved away all the verbiage the ‘rules’ boiled
down to a set of ‘motherhood’ statements that we all
learned at Ian Barns’ knee. You know the sort of thing Good
Jockey, Good Horse, Good Draw, Good Weight, Good Price, Good
Bet.
In addition there was a set of "Fitness Pattern" tables based
on (as I discovered later) a mathematically flawed concept, and
some selection instructions.
Now the various rules and instructions weren’t too difficult
to program, as was one other rule which I haven’t mentioned
yet ... the horse had to be in the first four lines of betting.
So, away we went with an overnight run through nine previous
years worth of Australian races. Totally impartial, completely
in accordance with the ‘rules’.
Strike Rate 18.57%. Small loss.
Then it dawned on me .. the following night we did an identical
run through identical data but ignored the rules completely.
Except for one. The horse must be in the first four lines of
betting. I made the machine pick one of the top four favourites
at random.
Strike Rate 18.75%. Small loss.
Ran the same thing several more times using just Metro, Metro
Sats, Metro Class, Provincial, Country, and on and on with
(as I expected) the same result.
It didn’t matter a damn what the ‘rules’ and tables said.
The whole system depended totally on the selection being in
the top four favourites.
I wrote to the originator and advised him of my findings.
He agreed replying "I agree, without this factor [first four
favourites] the XXXXXX goes nowhere."
UNQUOTE
Caveat emptor.
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