Hey, EI, interesting thoughts. I would tend to agree with 'classier' favourites being more predictable than maiden, low claiming, etc.

Two things caught my eye (that I treat as related) about a) your win/loss/win comment and 2) the 'U.K. System'.

First your comment about win/loss/win. What percentage of that group also either jumps back and forth in distance or claiming price/stakes or other 'class-related' factors? I am often looking for these switches or 'snaps'.

Second, the U.K. guy does something I do. I'm often looking for trainers returning their horses to 'comfort zones'. For example, coming back to a successful distance or inching up in class and then jumping back to a successful classes. I assume these are training or conditioning runs and now we're going to try for the gold.

But identifying false favourites would be very handy. I have a simple formula to sort of dutch horses but it takes out the favourite. The result is, more often than not, positive even in our annoying tote-only betting (where the odds don't settle down until "they're off!"). If I know when to take out this favourite I may have a serviceable lock situation.

-Duck