Hi, I've got a home made program that uses impact values to select the most likely horse. I take into acount barriers, weight, win %, place %, prize money, track & distance record and track condition etc.

For all this I get around a 30% strike rate and if I blindly bet on the selections I get a long term gradual lose over the past 3 years.

For the preceding 4 years it gave a good profit at the same strike rate. so why the change? My only conclusion is that with the dramatic increase of computor systems to make selections, these statistically most likely selections are more heaverly backed than before, thus reducing the dividend. A check of starting prices bears this out with the average now around $2.90 down from $4.60

I have made a couple of additional conditions to my selection which if passed I place the bet. This has resulted in a return to profit, though still not to the previous levels.

My advice is to keep written records as well as computor files. Computors crash and discs lose data over time. Then at least once a year review your selections, results for patterns, good & bad, make adjustments and check back over your records to see if that change has long term merit.

I have observed various short term trends or patterns which may be the basis for some of the commercially (********) software products. I had one pattern a couple of years ago I spotted just as it stopped. One of the bottom 2 rated horses were getting up 1 in 12 races with average div of $52. This meant for a $24 outlay I could of got back $52 = $28 profit. I watched and noted last season if it continued before I pumped money into TAB/Bookie pockets. Thankfully my caution was well founded as I would of lost big time.

Good punting,
Horse Cents