:lol: Ever tried to pick the winner?

Seriously though, your point is extremely pertinent to what every punter is trying to achieve. The inherent problem with any form analysis, computer program etc is this number one hurdle...

The best horse in the race does not win with a high enough strike rate because of various factors which cannot be measured.

How fit is fit?
How does the horse / jockey feel today?
Interference?
Bad Luck (As a separate entity to interference).
The list just goes on and on.

Until we invent something that will take into account every variable and assign a value to it, software programs and the like can only be a tool to help you assess available data and make an educated guess.

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Treat your selection and staking methods not with optimism, nor with pessimism, but with realism.