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Old 14th December 2004, 09:30 AM
sportznut sportznut is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Queensland
Posts: 2,266
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Okay, let's use your ratings. Take a game between say Carlton and Hawthorn at the MCG. You have Carlton on 87.8 and Hawthorn on 85.8. I've taken the liberty of just assuming that every .1 of a point is equivalent to 1 point on the scoreboard, because in the case of your ratings, I think that's not a bad assessment. Therefore, we have Carlton winning by 20 points.

Mo had a good formula for working out fair prices. It probably sounds a bit complicated, but I think it works well. I think the magic number was 0.955, wasn't it Mo? To find out the true value price for the favoured team Carlton, you multiply 0.955 by itself 20 times (once for every point you have Carlton winning by) and then add 1. Doing that, you end up with $1.40. To get Carlton's % chance, you simply divide 1.40 into 100 and you get 71.42%. Therefore Hawthorn's % chance is obviously 100 - 71.42, so 28.58%. Divide 100 by 28.58 and you get Hawthorn's value price of $3.50.

So therefore in that match, you would get:
Carlton (71.42%) $1.40
Hawthorn (28.58%) $3.50

Personally, I think it's a tad dangerous using ratings based on this year's results. I always like to use my own opinion. I've already done a revised set of ratings for next year. Obviously, I'll probably change it again slightly by the time the season rolls around, but at the moment, my ratings are like this:
126 Port Adel
120 St Kilda
117 Geelong
114 Brisbane
111 Sydney
108 West Coast
105 Essendon
102 Collingwood
99 Fremantle
96 Melbourne
96 Carlton
93 Adelaide
90 Kangaroos
84 West B'dogs
84 Hawthorn
84 Richmond
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