Equine Investor
In response to "You are saying that based on PAST results and PAST form Lonhro had a 80% chance in the race for example."
I was not saying Lonhro had an 80% chance at all. In fact I posted my prices before the race and I assessed him at 52.A gross under rating on my part but never the less I was unable to get my price so I stayed out of the race. In the example I was trying to explain that whether a horse is odds on or 10s is not important. What is important is getting a price longer than its real chance of winning. That is what is meant by value.The various arguments on whether you bet when say your fourth pick is value but none of your others is entirely a matter of choice. For what its worth I agree with Testa and if I cant get my price about the likely winner then I don't chase value on the outsiders. I have posted my prices for todays San Domenico Stakes on Paddys topic of the same name. Good luck to all.