
10th August 2002, 05:53 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Canberra
Posts: 730
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Rain Lover,
Although I don't do much place betting the 1/4 odds offered by bookmakers are actually a pretty good estimate of what the true odds should be, at least on 8 to 10 horse fields.
For example assume you have a 10 horse race with each horse having an equal chance of winning - ignoring bookmaker margins the odds would be 9/1 ($10.00) for each runner for the win and 9/4 (3.25) for the place - if you put $1 on each horse for the place it will cost you $10 and you will get $9.75 back so you can see it is pretty close. If it were 1/3 odds then you would get 3/1 on each place or $4 so you would get $12 for your $10 bet - great for the punter but you can see why bookies use 1/4!
Of course in the real world you have different odds which affect things. The 1/4 odds is to the punters advantage on shorter priced horses and small (8 horse) fields - it is in bookmakers favour on the longshots and larger fields.
On the tote the TAB take is exactly the same as the win pool (14.25% on Supertab from memory) and you will usually find the odds between 1/3 and 1/4 of win odds although there are often exceptions with many placegetters paying much more or less than they theoretically should.
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"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson
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