Legion,

No offence taken but I would take the "4%" overlay anytime - let me show you why. Lets say each time you see either of these overlays you put $10 on.

In the first case (your "bigger" overlay) you are getting a price of $1.90 on a horse that you think will win 66% of the time so your expected return for your $10 is 10 * 1.90 * 66% = $12.54. If this happens 100 times a year then you have outlayed $1000 and should win $1254 (25% POT). Quite a nice return.

Now with your "smaller" overlay you are getting a price of $26 on a horse you think will win 9% of the time. Expected return is therefore $10 * $26 * .09 = $23.40. If that happened 100 times per year then you have still outlayed $1000 but will win $2340 (134% POT).

Now I know which overlay I prefer - how about you? :grin:


_________________
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[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-08-10 20:37 ]