21st December 2004, 06:28 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,431
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DR RON
Chrome,
Do you have any stats on those horses? I would assume the ones with form 1 0 would have the lowest strike rate but highest ave winning price.
I would also assume that they all have a loss on turnover. Maybe a filter such as running in the same or lower class than the winning run.
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Hi DR RON,
I'm not literally saying back every 410 nag or anything like that, just in general discount or rule out the last run of every horse in the race and do the picks from there. There's some good priced winners bob up. Of course you'd have to incorporate class and distance etc, everything you'd normally do, just omitting the last start whether it be good or bad.
It's just another way of looking at the race, doing something a bit different to the herd.
Problem is, that the last run of a horse has the biggest influence on the next result in terms of stats. BUT you do get overlay value when the mob run away from an otherwise good horse who put in an ordinary run last start.
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