Filante I forgot to mention, all prices I put up are assessed to an 80% market so I certainly wouldn't be laying them at the prices I put up, rather backing them at those prices. Converted to 100% odds that makes it about a $10 or $11 chance according to me.

Certainly not confusing saddle cloth with odds, for although it was a very nice win by Crown Prosecutor LS, it is up in class and up in weight. I don't think it can carry the same weight as Mr Sandgroper and beat him, and I certainly don't think it can give 1.5 kilos to Free at Last and beat her. That being said, it still is my fourth pick and so I am not saying it cannot win, but that it represents bad value. Time will tell. Horse racing can be a great humbler.

You had a query which I neglected to answer in previous post as to my ratings method. For the classing aspect (past race), it examines the horses previous rating, compares that performance with today in terms of fin pos today, weight carried then to now and difference in class and assesses what it thinks the horse should rate today. It does that for the top five each race and comes up with the race figure as a result. For tomorrows races when the computer does the form it relies largely but not entirely on current form. I have always found (and nothing is without exception) that current form is the best barometer. Trainers may pull horses up (shock horror!) which distorts this but by and large, put simply, how a horse is going is how it is going.

Good luck
Duritz