21st December 2004, 08:23 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 359
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Duritz
Filante I forgot to mention, all prices I put up are assessed to an 80% market so I certainly wouldn't be laying them at the prices I put up, rather backing them at those prices. Converted to 100% odds that makes it about a $10 or $11 chance according to me.
Certainly not confusing saddle cloth with odds, for although it was a very nice win by Crown Prosecutor LS, it is up in class and up in weight. I don't think it can carry the same weight as Mr Sandgroper and beat him, and I certainly don't think it can give 1.5 kilos to Free at Last and beat her. That being said, it still is my fourth pick and so I am not saying it cannot win, but that it represents bad value. Time will tell. Horse racing can be a great humbler.
You had a query which I neglected to answer in previous post as to my ratings method. For the classing aspect (past race), it examines the horses previous rating, compares that performance with today in terms of fin pos today, weight carried then to now and difference in class and assesses what it thinks the horse should rate today. It does that for the top five each race and comes up with the race figure as a result. For tomorrows races when the computer does the form it relies largely but not entirely on current form. I have always found (and nothing is without exception) that current form is the best barometer. Trainers may pull horses up (shock horror!) which distorts this but by and large, put simply, how a horse is going is how it is going.
Good luck
Duritz
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Duritz,
I was only joking about the bet, but I do think you might have under-rated Crown Prosecutor for tomorrow. My view is that he's been set for this race and is ready to hit his peak. He was only just beaten in his two 2,400m runs last preparation. He's a winner of 6 from 20. I give him a bonus for being a 4yo because I think 4 and 5yos seomhow rise to the top in feature staying events, and I give him a further bonus for the ease of his last start win, because statistically horses that win by over three lengths repeat more often than their ratings suggest they should.
Mr Sandgroper definitely has the best overall form in the race, is a winner over 2,400m at Grp1 level, a winner of 5 from 14, and is a 4yo. He appeals to me as the best chance in the race. I'm not sure I agree with the proposition you put on another thread that he improves significantly over a staying distance - he seems perfectly adaptable to sprinting to me (see, for instance, one of his first up runs as a three year old when he carried 57kg from barrier 16 on an open 3yo 1,200m race and won by 3 lengths and his several good recent middle distance performances).
I'm less keen about Free At Last who has had an odd preparation for this, being 2nd up after a 53-day spell, and True Steel who is a 7yo with a significantly lower win strike rate than the other three chances, but I concede them both a chance as they rate around the mark with Mr Sandgroper out of their last start clash behind Modem over 1,800m, and both will certainly run the trip.
Anyway, I have them 11. Mr Sandgroper $3; 13. Crown Prosecutor $3.25; 15. Free at Last $6; and 3. True Steel $6.5.
In relation to your ratings for tomorrow, I would post them on a new thread.
Cheers,
F
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