Be Careful
I read with interest your answer regarding relative overlays. At once I thought "Aha" but he is assuming a level stake approach on 66% chances and 9% chances. The fool.Surely he realises the run of outs will kill him.So it was with much smugness i began to tap out a reply. Just as an after thought I ran the figures using my own staking approach.
As much as I hate to admit, the figures suggest an even wider anomaly using a more sophisticated staking method. You are absolutely right Be Careful and I reproduce my results for your and others interest.
Using our previous example I bet to take out a certain amount on each race. Lets say $100.
My assessed price of 12 has me outlaying $66 and securing 910 for a return of (66*1.9*.66)$82.76.Over our 100 bets this is $8276 for a profit of $1676 or 25%POT.
For the 101 chance the figures are assessed price 101 or 9% outlay $9 return at 251(9*26*.09)is 21.06 times 100 bets $2106 for $1206 profit or %134POT.Amazing.
Be Careful for all these years I have operated on the assumption that my returns would be proportional to the percentage differences without even bothering to check (obviously). In fact I gave up trying to chase turnover and only operate on races where I can get my price about my expected winner. Of course I do take the overs about longer priced horses when I can get my price about the expected winner.Your post has caused me to have a serious re think. Thanks for taking the time and I look forward to many more fruitfull discussions.