Plugga,

My basic "staking plan" is really simple - I just bet 1% of my current bank each bet (actually I do vary it a bit with smaller bets if I have a really small pool or if it is a real longshot but the basic bet is 1%). So when my bank was $2000 I was betting $20, at $5000 I bet $50, etc. As the bank grows so does the bet size, if I have a run of outs then the bet size reduces. This is the only problem with chasing the longer odds horses - you do have to be very cautious with bet size to survive the longer runs of outs. My current strike rate is just a bit over 10% and my longest run of outs so far was 41 (that hurt!) but it was followed up with 9 winners in the next 50 bets. Your other question was basically answered by Legion - you only know if you are getting value if in the long run you are winning! I have no doubt that on many occassions my evaluation about a particular horse is wrong (like when it runs last!) but in the long run I am winning so in most cases I believe I am being more accurate than the general punting public and that is what you need to do.

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"Computers can do that????" - Homer Simpson