Legion,
Congratulations on actually bothering to check before posting a reply - it's more than a lot of people seem to do! I think your original mistake was that you were looking at the absolute change rather than the relative change - so you were saying that a 14% difference is better than 5% difference (seems logical) - but what you should look at is the relative change so we have 66%/52% compared to 9%/4%.

Of course both overlays are worth taking and as long as you are accurate both will make a good profit. The shorter priced horses do have the advantage that you can be more aggressive with your bet size and so have a higher turnover (but lower POT) whilst the longer priced horses give the higher POT but you have to be more careful with bet size to protect yourself from the lower strike rate.

The main reason I concentrate on the higher priced winners is that I just cant seem to predict the under $6 market with enough accuracy to make a consistant profit. My "system" seems to work great with horses in the $6-$15 "real" chance range (after I add in my overlay required this gives bets in the $8 to $25 range) but if I go below that my POT drops dramatically. I don't know if this is just my system or whether there simply aren't very many real overlays below that price - I suspect it is a bit of both!

Anyway best of luck finding those overlays - they are definitely the path to profit!
_________________
"Try not. Do or do not. There is no try." - Yoda


[ This Message was edited by: becareful on 2002-08-11 10:46 ]