Duritz,

Big topics!

I start out with a speed map and a set of ratings and first eliminate horses with poor form (cut them off at 5 lengths from the top rated horse) or horses who are going to settle back in a slowly run race. Position with 600m to go, pace of the race to that point, finishing speed and the weight to be carried are all important. Beyond that its a matter of experience, judgment and personal taste. I don't have any particular secrets or special way of doing things.

I think it's important not to rely on your initial rating assessment (i.e. the raw ratings figure). Give bonuses and penalties for your own particular likes and dislikes.

The staking method I employ is a variation in the standard dutch book. My view is if you have a horse rated $3, if the bookmaker gives you $6 you should have 200 on it, if he gives you $12 you should have 400. Once you escape the "bookmaker market intimidation" mentality you free yourself to make substantially better profits.

If I don't have a hangover after Christmas I might post boxing day at Caulfield, and then go through the staking horse-by-horse.

Cheers,

F