Thread: favourites
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Old 24th December 2004, 04:20 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
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Favouites are funny things , they could have the worst form in the world & they still get up.

You will find , that no matter what you do to improve the SR , it will remain much the same at 30%
Shorter the price , higher the SR .
Higher the Price ,lower the SR but lesser level stakes loss.

Try it for your self by trying to pick 1 false Fav at each venue. every day of the week.
You will find at least 20% will still get up ,in spite of ones knowledgeable efforts of horse form logic.
The illogical favs still win & there`s nothing one can do about it .

A classic is Favs that have never run a race in their lives get up & beat experienced runners .
Faves carrying 4.5+kgs more than last start still winning in a 1400+ distance race .
Faves winning a 2000M race when the last start was a win over 1200M

If one is hell bent on betting favs , then target TAB favs in Maiden races , they seem to have a higher SR than any other class.
You will find that their form is Bull S**t but they still manage to win more than 32% of the time. Go figure.
It throws horse analysis logic out the window.

Try it for yourself by backing every Maiden TAB Fav paying $2.80+ & see if you can get 10 looses in a row , it wont be easy getting 10 consecative outs. .
I wonder if there is a bookie out there that would take such a bet.

If you were to bet the fav to loose you would need to get a price of at least $1.20 to break even, because the worst case sinerio is approx
18-20% win SR .

It`s the low priced fav that kills the multi bet punter every time .
If he or the Bookmaker could pick the false fave 85% of the time, they could be millionairs.
Crazy stuff .
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