I think this is a very difficult race to sort out.

Firstly there is a lot of speed with 11.Institution (who probably leads and returns to his best distance range), 3. Fiery Venture, 4. Stoway, 5. Vareza, 13. Carngo and 10. Art Official all likely to push forward. Secondly, there are several different formlines to sort out: those that finished behind Reclaim two weeks ago (listed race); those that finished behind Ike's Dream in a high rating Villiers last week (group 2, Randwick track record); those that finished behind Vareza last week (open handicap); the others, some of whom are pushing on from the Brisbane summer carnival.

Then there are the unknowns. 8. Northern Beau from New Zealand. He ran 2nd over 2400m in listed company last start. I discount him, because his best form is on wet tracks and because the class of the race looks beyond him. 17. Run Rita Run has won 3 from 3 up to 1,600m in a 4yo and up 0MW race. He is by Runyon who was a class middle distance performer in Melbourne even when getting on in years. It is possible that the sharp distance rise will suit, but the class jump of around 6 lengths will more than likely sort him out.

Clearly horses like 9.Navy Blue, 6.Padfoot Charlie and 15.Trinity Song will be suited if, as I suspect, the tempo is hectic.

3. Fiery Venture is interesting - he held on well for sixth in the Villiers only 3.5 lengths away after being up on the speed. Jim Cassidy, who has ridden the gelding for 3 of his wins, takes the ride tomorrow replacing J Ford. Only 4 starts ago Fiery Venture won a group 3 race over 2000m by 3 lengths.

I won't be betting on this race but, for what it's worth, I rate them as follows:

1. Reclaim $5.0
3. Fiery Venture $5.7
5. Vareza $6.0
13. Carngo $8.5

I would also give winning chances to 4. Stoway, 6. Padfoot Charlie, 9.Navy Blue and 11. Institution.