12th August 2002, 10:41 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 3
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Quote:
On 2002-08-12 01:26, hermes wrote:
1. Take the lowest numbered last start winner, all races, any races.
2. Eliminate any rank outsiders but leave long shots with even a slim chance.
3. Eliminate all TAB number 1's.
4. Bet level stakes to win.
Strike rate 21%
POT = 6%
Places gets to break even.
-- Very interesting thread Hermes, thanks. So this is over several hundred races? Rank outsider = 20+ or worse?
Better still, eliminate all TAB numbers 1, 2, 3. Lower strike rate, less action, better POT. Also shows small but steady POT on places.
Or, bet to win by TAB number, so $4 for TAB 4 etc. Assumes that the lower the TAB the better the return, on average. (Actually i added the wrong columns in the spread sheet to find....) Yields 13% POT.
-- Do you mean here $4 on 4, 3 on 3 etc.
But everything depends on rule 2. distinguishing between a no-hoper and a slim chance.
Hermes
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Also, in your sample there, when you say eliminate the TAB 1's, if you have a 1 and an 11 say in a race, do you then back the 11, or throw out the race altogether?
Nice work, keep it up.
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