i have been watching with interest this thread.
it brings back memories of trialling all thoughts of methods over the years.
taking into account the prices gained and the calcullations of weight and barrier and jockey and margins and whatever else goes into making a selection the outcomes will rely on committment and the guts to follow through with these outcomes.
the likelihood of co-incidence comes into it to. a system has to be right some of the time even if its the above simply because of the amount of variables that come into calculating a winner.
on the weekend the percentage of winners paying under 7.5-1 (must be careful with that) was shown to be >70 in allmost all capitals.
plus 33% being favorites and 55% coming from the top 5 in the weights it gets very complicated.

it makes me tired thinking about all the complications.
i know what enthusiasm will do in racing. but fortune favors the brave and i think racing comes down to this.
best wishes and good luck to the enthusiasts.
i have a book that i bought 25 years ago (american) written by a guy who had been punting for 32 years (new york) and he had never met anyone who lived off the punt>
i know computers probably have improved that but there always seems to be something going on to defeat all the best methods.

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laurie