Hey systems punters - can one of you answer a question for me? It's been bugging me for quite some time. How do you work out the probability of a given run of outs of a system based on it's strike rate, and therefore what is a reasonable bank to have to support any potential run of outs for a given method?

For example, say you've got a method with a 20% strike rate. What is the % stake of your bank you should use (level stakes) whereby any reasonable run of outs can be endured? And what runs of outs can one expect with a 20% strike rate? Or 40%? Or 10%?

What's the calculation punters?!

Your help appreciated.
Duritz