11th January 2005, 09:58 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 578
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Duritz
For example, say you've got a method with a 20% strike rate. What is the % stake of your bank you should use (level stakes) whereby any reasonable run of outs can be endured? And what runs of outs can one expect with a 20% strike rate? Or 40%? Or 10%? Duritz
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The answer is not as simple as stating with a 20% strike-rate there is an expectation of X being the longest run of outs. It really depends on the number 'events' that the 20% strike-rate is being tested on. For example, there is a 56% expectation of a longest run of outs in any 100 'events' with a 20% strike-rate, but over 1000 'events' there is a 52% expectation of a longest run of outs of 25. Over 10,000 there is a 55% expectation of a run of outs of 35.
Of course there would be greater expectations of runs of outs of lesser amounts. |