Following Tipsters Plan
Here is a plan for those who like to follow Tipsters.
7 Days a week.
RACES 1-5 ONLY
Concentrate on the 1st 5 races only.
Target the top 2 selections of your chosen tipster E.g. TABQ first 2 selections or any other prefered source.
The reason why we target the 1st 5 races only, is the stats show over 10,000 races ,that the avereage tipster will strike the winner within their top two , 36% of the time.
Races 6 onwards show a 28% SR in their top 2.
That`s a wopping 8 point difference in SR , or in real terms , you will strike 33% more winners following the first 5 races as opposed to races 6-8+
Most Favored columns in the tipsters polls E.g. Weekend Australian or any other tipsters poll, have a 45% SR for their top 2 & has been that same figure for years. It appears as a recurring statistic ,which is something one should maybe hone in on to maybe improve ones chances.
One could create their own tipsters poll from say 5 different tipping sources.
By taking each sourse`s 3 selections & applying 3,2,1 pts . so as to create the desired poll . then target it`s top 2.
It has shown over the years that a conscences poll always has a higher SR than an individual tipster.
On the other hand ,the divs are also usually lower, approx $4.00 so the POT potential is approx the same but higher SR.
1/5th. INSURANCE BET
Use your favorite method of separating 2 horses.
Now bet 5 units a race.
Place 4 of those units on your favored horse (Best Selection) to win & 1 unit on the other one to win ,as a saver bet, so as to protect one`s bank from our lousey separation process if it should let us down for a while.
What we are doing is taking out 1/5th for insurance.
A SEPARATION PROCESS
Your separation process could be to make your selection selection, to be the one with the WORST last start. This is done to maximise value.
If a draw , take the one with the BEST second last start, ext.
Always favour the horse that has had 2+ starts over the horse that has had only one career start.
Bet 4 units on your Best selection & 1 unit on your Other selection.
Now if one had a 75% SR of selecting the Best of those 2 horses.
The POT would be approx 32% based on one selection per race.
E.g. 36% Top 2 SR @ 75%=27%SR of ones 1st selection @ average price of $4.90=32% POT .
This of cource will be lower if taking the saver bet as well which would work out at 15% POT because we are betting 2 horses instead of 1 only ,this is done to protect the bank from a dreaded long run of outs ,which may come along.
It also keeps it more interesting as a punter , because we have 2 Mules running for us instead of 1 Mule which chooses to run 2nd all day , just like we knew it would.
All bets can be layed at once, great for those who like to set & forget ,so as to do other things.
With the average price being $4.90 it is easier to get 1 winner in 5 to break even , than it is to get 2 winners in 8 , so mathematically ,one has a punting edge ,which is something professional punters bring up all the time.
Greater POT is acheived if stopping at the first winner of our Best selection, for each venue within the first 5 races.
So ,when one of our Best selections gets up at that venue , cease punting that venue & continue with the other venues.
Check it out.
__________________
Cheers.
|