15th January 2005, 09:29 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: geeveston
Posts: 702
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thanks for the query.
i dont usually elaborate the factor i use because you ratings guys would challenge me and tear me to pieces because it goes against most ratings theories.
its what i call the swing weights and margins.
if a horse gets beaten by 1 length carries 57 and is beaten by a horse carrying 53 kgs i credit him with 4kgs
i try to bring every horse in the race back to equal weights.
so if phar lap gets beaten by a short half head by peter pan and phar lap carries 65kgs and peter pan carries 55 kgs. then i would say that phar lap beat peterpan by 10kgs less a short half head.
that would go against conventional ratings wisdom.
so next time they measure up at the same weight i would say that phar lap is ahead of peter pan by 7 lengths and would expect him to beat him.
challenging isnt it.
last time broadband was beaten by 1andahalf kilos plus .3 of a length and went up halfkg.
youth was beaten by a narrow margin but had to give 1 and a half kgs and also came down 2kg today and (not counted) he also drew barrier 1.
so looked really good.
lord volksraad came up a length better than youth but drew barrier 6 and i think this made the difference.
3 Irish Crusader (NZ) (7) 57.0 6yo b g (B Mayfield-Smith at Flemington) M Flaherty
"irish crusader(good)(2200)(ballarat)20-11-04)8"
Factor: 0.3805
5 Capadan (NZ) (2) 56.5 6yo b g (R S McDonald at Caulfield) N Callow
"capadan(good)(1630)(flemington)10-07-04)7"
Factor: 0.592
you will note here that irish crusader was .21 lengths ahead of capadan with a similar barrier set up to youth/lord volksraad except that irish crusader was (possibly) ridden a bit better than lord volksraad or was luckier.
conventional or not but its a very handy factor.
the trick is to judge where it is not appropriate to rely too much on it.
e.g. from country to city racing etc.
e.g. country races under normal ratings systems are rated with several kgs lower than city. i dont do that as it is too much work and that is why i use listed horses and dates as a direct filter to punt with.
this is where broadband is discarded not necessarily on his weight factor but on the last date he appeared in listed placings.
i hope you can understand that but it makes it easier for win/place betting.
it is not a good method for trifecta etc as i do not rate the whole field.
but it is good fun without too much work.
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laurie
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