Sportz you can't concentrate on recent form only, and you can't concentrate on old form only. You can't restrict to this distance, nor this state of the track. You can't take last start as gospel, nor can you ignore it. You can't average all runs, nor can you place too much emphasis on one only. To blandly paraphrase Euripides - "the best way is the middle way."

There is no easy answer. Know the horse, know what it can do on it's ratings, watch it run, see how it's going now, estimate given tomorrow's circumstances what it will do tomorrow. Then, price the race, bet the overs.

When you lose (this is VERY important) look back and work out why you under assessed it. When you win, enjoy the satisfaction that comes from being right and winning money out of it.

This will always be the best way.

Duritz.