Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny
Can one use the Kelly method in working out the amount to bet on two horses in the same race? Benny
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Yes, you just need to know your advantage - Kelly staking will not work unless there is a level stakes profit.
Example:
Horse A: Rated @ Evens ($2) Available 2/1 ($3) edge = 16.7%
Horse B; Rated @ 2/1 ($3) Available 4/1 ($5) edge = 13.3%
A 'true' Kelly bet would demand that you should bet 30% of your bank split into the two proportions as shown above. But in reality most punter wouldn't risk this much of their bank and would use a half-Kelly or some other alternative amount.
Assuming a 100% market, horses "A" and "B" represent 83.3% of that market, so in this instance, I would use the remaining 16.7% as the basis of the stake, which translates to:
A: Stake 9 units
B: Stake 7 units for a total outlay of 16 units
If "A" wins at the available odds then the return would be 27 units for an 11 unit profit on the total outlay;
If "B" wins at the available odds the the return would be 35 units for a 19 unit profit on the total outlay.
Of course, if neither win then the 16 units would be lost.