Thread: Kelly Method
View Single Post
  #2  
Old 24th January 2005, 06:11 PM
La Mer La Mer is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 578
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny
Can one use the Kelly method in working out the amount to bet on two horses in the same race? Benny


Yes, you just need to know your advantage - Kelly staking will not work unless there is a level stakes profit.

Example:
Horse A: Rated @ Evens ($2) Available 2/1 ($3) edge = 16.7%
Horse B; Rated @ 2/1 ($3) Available 4/1 ($5) edge = 13.3%

A 'true' Kelly bet would demand that you should bet 30% of your bank split into the two proportions as shown above. But in reality most punter wouldn't risk this much of their bank and would use a half-Kelly or some other alternative amount.

Assuming a 100% market, horses "A" and "B" represent 83.3% of that market, so in this instance, I would use the remaining 16.7% as the basis of the stake, which translates to:

A: Stake 9 units
B: Stake 7 units for a total outlay of 16 units

If "A" wins at the available odds then the return would be 27 units for an 11 unit profit on the total outlay;
If "B" wins at the available odds the the return would be 35 units for a 19 unit profit on the total outlay.

Of course, if neither win then the 16 units would be lost.
Reply With Quote