
25th January 2005, 12:54 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 479
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Average of 30%
You must remember that it is an average over a long period of time....
While your stats over 13 meetings might suggest strange happenings to you, you must consider other factors. The biggest of these would be the price of these favourites. Some meetings run with small fields all day, where you would expect shorter priced favourites and obviously a higher strike rate....
I think the most important thing to remember is this: The chance of a horse winning is generally represented by its market share. A horse showing $2 will win about 42-45% of the time returning about 90% of your investment. This is the same for all horses in a race ( although once you get down passed $15-$20, the winning chance becomes alot more volatile.... )
Please note : These are average figures. Alot of people in here will argue that there are $2 favourites that should be almost certainties whereas other $2 favourites are questionable favs....
My opinions here are based on passed stats, and only looking at dividends as opposed to form/class etc....
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