View Single Post
  #2  
Old 1st February 2005, 08:08 AM
Neil Neil is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 804
Default

Hello,

The Super Specials are part of the Premium Betting Package. They are not marketed separately.

You wrote:
"Does that mean that the guy who's currently showing 53% POT on the Specials is in for a hard time ahead?"

Past results statistically have no influence on how future results will go. Because you've had a very good run with 50, 100, 200 bets doesn't mean the next 50, 100, 200 will be no good.

However, 50%, 40%, 30% very long term profits is an unrealistic expectation.

Over a huge number of bets we'll be satisfied if we can obtain around 10% POT. This doesn't rule out the possibility of sequences of say 100 bets making 50% POT, nor does it rule out the possibility of 100 bets actually making a negative return.

We expect serious, disciplined punters to understand this, unlike the small casual punter who usually expects miracles from a tipping service and when a few selections lose says, "They're no good."

I played blackjack counting cards accurately and eventually Crown Casino restricted me, admitting I would beat them over the long term. But even when I had a significant advantage I could easily lose over a sequence of 100, 200, 300 bets placed.

Unfortunately that is the nature of the betting game, even when you have an edge.

Cheers, Neil
Reply With Quote