Hi Bj,

There are clues given on the forms that indicate whether a horse is being target for a specific distance/race.

For example, if a horse peaked last prep, 2up or 3up, whereas, this prep, after 3up or 4up and has not peak yet, the trainer could have been set the horse to peak today race. Some horses peaked early in its prep, espeacially sprinter, which comes to hand quickly, hence peak at its first few starts. If a horse won easily over sprint distances, eg. 1400m, but this prep, it raced over 1400m, 2up and 3up, with finishing with a few lengths, and today its running over 1600m, the trainer may have specific targetting today race. For a sprinter to race well over middle plus race, they need more works, and hence the last few starts were used to toughen them up for the tough assigment down the prep.

Sometime u can look at the step up in distance and the number of days between starts. For example, one case i remembered was 2003 Turnbull stakes, when Studebaker, won. At first sign, its a lighty raced 4 year old with only 9 starts in its career, but it has won 1700m last prep. When it resumed, it has 3 starts, over sprint distances, with its last start which has 20 days break and raced over 1500m 3up, where the in running showed that it held ground where it finished 5th place with 1.5L margin. Then 7 days later, it stepped up by 500m over 2000m. The clue is already given here, with the 20 days freshen up over 1500m, and then back up in 7 days with 500m step up in distance. A trainer wouldnt do this if he does not think the horse is not in peak form. Studebaker won at a juicy odd paying $22.30 on the NSW TAB.

For me i look for days between races and distance between starts to judge whether a horse is being set for a target race. Some stayers, run over sprint distances ( which they find the distances short and appear to run badly, but they were just running a stayer pace, where other sprinters are running in sprint pace ) to toughen them up, and then back up to longer distances, where these horses will run in peak form.

Just because a horse ran badly in the last few starts does not mean the horse will run badly today.

I hope this help.