Guys it's really quite simple except that you're both talking from different standpoints. I'll explain them both:
WOOF43
Is saying that if you put $1 on every runner at the meeting, you're return will be less than 85% of what you outlayed. Think of it this way - 8 races at Flemington this day, all the favourites get up, ranging in odds from $1.50 to $3.20. Your total collect, with $1 on each of them, was $11.40, and your total outlay was $102 because there were 102 horses at this meeting and you had $1 on each. Incidentally there was a meeting at Caulfield one carnival years ago where roughies got up i think every race, that day $1 on each would have WON on the day. Sometimes (rarely) that will happen, but averaged out you will lose. When he says "the efficiency" of the market (I assume) what he means is how good it is at finding the winners, so the smaller your total return, the more "efficient" - or accurate - that market is.
BJ
Is saying that if you VARY your stake, and have whatever amount on them it takes to COLLECT $100 no matter which horse wins, then you will lose 15% per race, betting on the tote. This is TRUE. Example -
Race 1
A - $3.30
B - $2.00
C - $2.70
On A you have $30 (100/$3.30) to collect $100 should it win. On B, $50, again, collect $100 should it win. On C, $37, collect $100 should it win. Your outlay is $117, and whichever horse wins you collect $100, losing $17 or 15% of your money.
That's just an example of what happens because of the tote take. If the tote took nothing, then using that method you'd outlay $100 and collect $100 every race.
What he is further saying is that if you can therefore get BETTER ODDS than the tote, you can theoretically reduce the race % from the 117% that it is because of the tote take, to somewhere below 100%, at which point you begin making a profit.
Using the example from above, had you scrounged around the various betting agencies etc and obtained the prices below about your selections, this is what would happen:
A - $4.50
B - $2.50
C - $3.50
You wold have $22 on A, to collect $100 ($22*$4.50), $40 on B, and $28 on C. Total outlay = $90, total collect = $100, profit = $10 no matter which horse wins, or 11% on turnover.
Good job. Problem is getting those prices.....
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