29th August 2002, 11:06 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 166
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Hi Darkydog and all
I see have you been studying your Don Scott / Rem Plante quotes very dilligently.
In my view, saying times have no place in racings is blatantly ignorant. My own approach is centred on a combination of time and the influence pace has on time, and I have managed to make an effective income for a number of years. I will say though that times are not consistently reliable if you do not consider the early pace of the race and the influence it has had on final time.
My own database of rated races over the past 6 years clearly shows that better horses run faster times than inferior horses. When I comine that with the influence of pace, the relationship and effectiveness of those ratings in identifying the difference between horses is very very good.
At the end of it all, the key is to be able to identify what time rating a horse can run in the likely pace conditions of the upcoming race. Add a few other checks like weight, distance, fitness etc. and you have a powerful indication of the competitive potential of horses in an upcoming race.
I then isolate the value, bet those horses effectively, ignore the poor value and when the dust settles at the end of a year, I find that i'm in front, all be it some years less than others.
So when I hear someone say that times don't work, all it means to me is that they don't know how to make them work.
Our betting environment is still dominated by class and weight and this is the reason why times are more effective. Very few people know how to use them well.
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