29th August 2002, 02:27 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 166
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Vig,
Thats why it can be very profitable is because it is so hard to do and very few people have the ability or more importantly the resources at their disposal to do it well.
In short, you need to compare all times run on a day against the standard for the track and distance. However it gets more complicated. The class of racing isn't the same at all tracks so your standards need to take this into account. Using the times comparison you calculate the how fast/slow the track was for the day and correct actual times to reflect this.
You are then in a position to compare correct times against the standard but that is only partially useful as you need to consider the influence of early pace.
By understanding the times horses should run given the early pace, you can compare actual performances against them and determine race quality.
(At tracks where they don't record sectional times it is impossible to complete the pace analysis stage.)
The only way I can maintain a process as detailed as this for every race run in Australian where they record sectionals is through some sophisticated comptuer technology and an established set of standards, parameters etc. that were developed based on analysis of 7 years of racing.
Take my word for it, it can be done but unless you have the resources for automation, its impossible to consistently maintain.
In saying all that, no set of numbers provide the magical answer to racing. You still have to apply common sense to their interpretation and use...and most importantly, bet for value.
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