Trying to come up with a formula regarding the Jockey Challenge I narrowed down the possibilities by coming up with a basic set of hypothetical,but unreal,set of races.

Let there be 3 races,each of which have 4 starters,ridden by only 4 available jockeys.
Say,Beadman(B),Cassidy(C),Nikolic(N) and Oliver(O).
And just for the sake of experimentation,let Beadman always get the $2 favourite,Cassidy gets the $4 chance,Nikolic gets the $5 chance and Oliver has the $20 chance.
So we know the chances of our jockeys are winning the race,but what are their chances of running 2nd and 3rd and unplaced.
Well in my more patient years,I came up with a formula which would calculate the probabilities of every possible trifecta combination,after inputting all the starters prices.
From that I could then work out the place chances and even the price of finishing in a particular position.
Now of course I don't recall how I done this,but the program is still there and I have used it to come up with the appropriate prices for the hypothetical races today.

The percentage possibilities for race 1(which will also apply to all our hyperthetical races.) as regards finishing position are:

----1st2nd3rd4th
B - 50 32 15 03
C - 25 33 32 10
N - 20 28 38 15
O - 05 08 15 72

Just side tracked for a moment,notice how the 20-1 shot has the same chance of running 3rd (15%) as has the Even money favourite.Yet we can understand 20-1 shots running third but jump up and down when an evens favourite can only sneak 3rd.

GEE!.I was doing allright for a while but now it looks as though I've come to a huge abyss.And to cross the abyss it seems to be you need to know every possible permution for the placings in said hypothetical race!

Goodbye cruel woorrrrrlllllldddddddd!

I'll be back!