We were talking about putting a dollar on each horse in each race at meetings some time ago and what the returns meant, well I've come up with a few results to mull over.

These are returns over the last 10 years on the NSW TAB if you plonked a dollar on pretty much every horse in pretty much every race (I say pretty much because data on the net just ain't perfect).

Over the 10 years 79.0% Returned overall (i.e.$79 back for every $100 bet).

1995 - 2001 is fairly consistent around the 79.6% area then progresses to 77.8% by 2004.
I guess the punters are getting more accurate.

There is only 2% between the highest and lowest yearly return so it's pretty consistent.

What puts the meaning of this ROI in perspective for me is the returns under different track conditions.

Avg Var from
Year to year
Fast Tracks 79.0% + or - 5%
Good Tracks 77.8% + or - 2%
Dead Tracks 79.6% + or - 5%
Slow Tracks 82.0% + or - 4%
Heavy Tracks 84.8% + or - 5%

You can see the punter does a more efficient job on Good tracks than any other sort. Heavy tracks overall are only 7% different and as many people say leave the punt alone on wet tracks it shows what a difference that 7% makes.

Metro tracks: 78.7%
Non Metro: 79.2%
Not much difference here.

1 to 8 Runners: 80.0%
9 to 12 Runners: 79.3%
13 to 25 Runners: 78.2%
This is a strange one. Does it mean we bet more efficiently in bigger fields? I'll be interested to hear anyones explanation of this one.

Canterbury: 77.5%
Rosehill: 78.1%
Randwick (Kens): 75.0%
Royal Randwick: 78.9%
Warwick Farm: 76.9%
Caulfield: 79.95%
Flemington: 82.7%
Moonee Valley: 82.4%
Ascot: 80.1%
Belmont: 77.0%
Eagle Farm: 76.95%
Doomben: 77.6%
Morphetville: 81.4%
Sandown: 80.05%
Hillside(03-04): 86.0%
Lakeside(03-04): 75.0%

6% ish difference from easiest track to hardest. Almost as much as Good track to Heavy track.

Well, Duritz said Flemington was a better betting prospect than Caulfield and the figures bear him out. We are 3% better at our job as punters at Flemington than Caulfield. About the same as we are better on Good tracks rather than Slow tracks.

Returns by the three TABs 1/8/02 to 31/12/04.

NSW Tabco UniTab
All courses: 78.0 77.6 77.3
NSW Races: 78.0 77.7 78.2
QLD Races: 77.9 77.9 76.4
WA Races: 77.0 75.8 75.9

Hope you find this interesting. Any ideas how we can use it to improve our betting?

KV