
8th February 2005, 08:18 PM
|
|
Member
|
|
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 696
|
|
From studying each Tracks Win Efficiency, it tells you, you have to change things from track to track. Every handicapping factor performs differently from track to track. And the track regulars understand their track's "performance parameters" and adjust their play accordingly. So to take advantage of the crowd's tendencies, you DO have to study and understand wagering at each track as an individual entity. That's not to say there aren't a lot of similarities from track to track. And the general effect of crowd size behaves much the same from track to track. But the amount the crowd overplays or underplays any given factor does depend on that factor's performance at each track.
Another study would be to look at win efficiency by the day of the week (public holidays and special events), by doing this you will get another crosshair on when Favs are over played an longshots underplayed and vice versa an when you need to use different wagering strategies.
Remember people are creatures of habit, and they will reward you time after time with profits IF YOU ARE WILLING TO LOOK IN THE RIGHT PLACE. If you are looking at factors, you are trying to beat the HORSES. If you are looking at wagering, you are trying to beat the CROWD. Of those two, the only one who actually offers you money is the crowd! GO WHERE THE MONEY IS. Let the HORSES take care of themselves! the thing that makes it SO HARD to make a profit using a standalone ranking/handicapping method IS THAT IT'S ABOUT THE SAME WAY THAT EVERYBODY ELSE DOES IT. When everybody is doing it, IT'S GOING TO BE AN UNDERLAY! Only by slicing out your own private little 5% do you have a chance with such a method.
Imagine You're giving up on 19 races out of 20 because you're too blindered by steps #1 and #2 in your handicapping. You should be looking for ways to make your handicapping AS IS work on a high percentage of all races. That's possible, but ONLY if you study wagering instead of trolling for magical combinations of factors. Or trolling for your tiny slice of races where your combination of factors plus your wagering pattern AREN'T overbet by the crowd.
Imagine if your car broke down 19 times out of 20 when you tried to drive to the supermarket, would you say you have a well-designed car? If your computer locked up 19 times out of 20 when you booted up, would you say you have great software? If you chose 20 restaurants because of the colour of their awnings and got 1 good meal out of 20, would you think you have a good way of finding eateries? if you admit you can only play 1 race out of 20 this tells you something really important.
|