Thanks guys that's exactly what I was after.

I could argue against his method somewhat, as he is assessing potential in a lot of areas, and how often does a horse live up to his potential? This has to be factored in as well. I have also just read G.R.'s method and can argue against his second and third up from a spell bias.

I guess it's the information I was after, not the argument

Thanks again, that gives me a starting point to apply my own ideas and bias or non bias.

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