9th February 2005, 03:00 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 578
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DR RON
Just to add to La Mer's reply, the expected peak rating was the peak rating last preparation plus any expected age improvement.
When doing weight ratings for the ratings comp, I use the most recent rating over a similar distance to the current race. I am now starting to think along similar lines to woof43 and might start to use average figures along with standard deviations rather than just rely on one figure only.
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Thanks for making that addition Dr. Ron - should have put that point in myself as it is important, particularly when dealing with young horses at ages 2, 3 & 4.
As an alternative to what Scott stated about selecting one single run, what I used to do when I was an active weight rater was to take a weighted average of a horse's three runs (this preparation) giving a weighting of 50%/30/20% preferably going back in time. i.e the latest run getting the 50%, or weight them according to performance during a horse's last three runs, with the 50% going to the best run, 30% to the second best run and 20% going to the third best run. So using the going back in time approach, if a horse had ratings of 65, 58, 61, then the weighted average would be 62.1.
While it does take some extra time to do it this way, I personally found the results far better than singling out one single base or qualifying run.
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