Yeah those things - as you alluded - come with doing enough horses to gain a sense of it.

I agree entirely with what you say about early career stuff versus now etc. A horse who is now, say, a 4yo and had good 2yo form, I completely ignore the 2yo form. It's 3yo form I ONLY use if it is EARLY in it's FIRST prep back being a 4yo, ie if there is no other data. A lot of things happen to horses after they've finished their first or second prep, things which can mean they in no way resemble the horse they were as a juvenile when an adult. Racing is very tiring stuff, especially when you're overaced by greedy owners and over compensated by pain killers from your trainer. They can stuff you up, then the horse gets to the paddock, the injuries set in, they come back sore and as a result also do not WANT to race. Never assume early form translates.

Will post more another time, things to do.

Cheers.
Duritz