10th February 2005, 02:37 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 4,414
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DR RON
I think one of the reasons Scott was so successful was that he got the jump on the bookieswith his analysis and as a consequence was able to secure many overlays in the one race, so it was not unheard of for him to back 6 or 7 winners at one meeting. I think he may have even backed every winner on the card a couple of times.Nowadays with the bookies analysis far more advanced , there are less genuine value bets left. There is nothing more frustrating than to spend time analysing a race only to come up with the same prices as the bookies. I think this why many people prefer mechanical systems. While they might not be as reliable, because they use different methods, they might be able to find value that normal ratings cant.
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Too true DR RON!
The bookies cannot control mechanical systems per se, but they can incorporate class weight speed time ratings, I'm sure they have the best of them. They then adjust their prices to the public bets. I'm currently operating on a 10% POT with one of my systems which picked Bipolar yesterday, the bookies cannot get wise and suddenly offer 10% less on my selections, as the weight of money and market price has to be included. If they did, they'd get stung every time my selection failed (about 1/3 of the time.
This is where mechanical systems have it over ratings, but if someone comes up with a better ratings system that's not been done to death, then they may have a chance. |