Duritz,
your reaction to that line was the same as mine :-)


La Mer,
Last night I did a bit of research about the Kelly and I think we have both mistakenly been arguing about a progression method that just is not a progression method at all, as for a start it is correctly named the 'Kelly Method' and not [for good reason] the 'Kelly Progression Method'. Unless you used it to suck me in [ good one:-) ] we both have misinterpreted it's methodology.

The Kelly adjusts staking according to actual odds advantage/disadvantage to maximise profit or minimise potential loss. It is a fractional staking adjustment method [ more like adjusting our bet size in flat stakes % betting, but just more complex and related to odds as well as Bank size], not a progression method as we use the term in horse racing or other types of betting. The flaw that would send anyone broke with this method in racing is that unlike Casino games like blackjack and roulette etc., the probability factor [odds] of a horse winning or loosing can never be more than an educated guess. The Kelly method relies on accurate probability that is impossible to calculate in Horse Racing.

There are several books out about using the Kelly Method in the Stock Market, so I assume it is used there obviously.

I thought the maths equation link had a link to the forum it came from but it doesn't. However, unwittingly you already have it and have supplied it in one of your posts here. The equation itself is written by the site owner :-)