Thanks for the idea, I'll follow it up. I've long been aware of the concept of
value betting, as opposed to plonking your money on the horse most likely
to win, regardless of the odds.
A problem I've had over the years is the shift in prices between the morning
paper, and the start prices. But I'm not the type to go along to races.
I wanted to ask you what you think of the idea of giving a 'weighting' to a
win result last week as opposed to a win of four months ago. ie, if a horse won two of it's last six races for a 33% SR, but the two wins were 3-4 months
ago, and it's more recent starts were disasters, would we give that horse the
same credibility as if it's two wins were the most recent starts?
I don't know a lot about the horse racing game, and tend to have trouble
remembering stats, so I hone in on simple systems like yours. In a horse race there are too many things to go wrong in a given race, you can only play the
averages game, accept losses, and concentrate on Strike Rate x odds, to
stay ahead of the game.
all the best
Lin in Gosford
PS Don't let my name fool you, I"m a bloke.